09 July 2008

20th century Sahel rainfall variability as simulated by the ARPEGE AGCM and future changes (2)

Here is the submitted draft version to climate dynamics concerning the links between SST/Tropospheric temperatures and the Sahelian drought for the ARPEGE model, and an highlight concerning the IPCC simulations

update (09/07/08)



Anonymous said...

Dear Dr. Caminade. I'm living in the Sahelian region and I'm confused by your paper. What do the climate scientists exactly predict for us?
For my people, it is not an theoretical issue, and despite a lot of studies and research projects, I never saw a clear answer.

I hope that an expert like you could answer my question.

Thank you very much.

Anonymous said...

I'm very disappointed, Dr. Caminade. My people are suffering and you don't dare answer my question.
What is the point to be a scientist if you refuse to take an active role in the society and what is point to have a blog if you refuse to answer the question of our readers?

Caminade Cyril said...

I'm really sorry sir. I've been really busy this time and I didn't have the time to read my blog.
Just to be simple:

1) Concerning rainfall changes:
No clear concensus at this time
The third report of the IPCC highlighted a sligh increase in rains. The fourth one does not conclude on a prefered rainfall change scenario at the end of the 21t century. That's what the paper is about. One model seems realistic for the observed drought period and projects to dryer conditions in the future. But the mechanisms do not seem to remain the same for the future.... So at this time no clear conclusions

2) temperature:
The temperature rainfall hanges over the Sahel could lead to a 2-4 degrees increase over the Sahel and a 3-6 degrees one over the Sahara.
The fact that the Sahara warms up quicker than the Sahel is due to the location of the rainbelt during summer (the clouds reducing the impact of the greehouse effect due to a possible impact on the solar radiation)