Publication update

2 non peer review publications, with however lots of readers:

H. Guis, C. Caminade, G. Gerbier, R. Lancelot, A. Tran (2010) Evaluation de l’impact du changement climatique en santé animale : état des lieux et recommandations. CIHEAM (Centre International des Haute Etudes Agronomiques Mediterraneennes) letters, Hiver 2010, 12:7-9. Download the pdf - english - french

E. Vismans, A. Morse, C. Caminade, M. Edward (2010) Maximising the use of climate science for all end users. CLIVAR exchanges Newsletters, Vol 15, No 1, 6-10. Download the pdf.

Tutorials

I've written few tutorials and examples for linux basic commands, netcdf files manipulation, nco and the ferret visualization software.
This can be useful for PhD / master students starting basic analysis. The files are in pdf format.

Linux tutorial
Netcdf and NCO tutorial
Ferret tutorial
NCL tutorial part1: programmig
NCL tutorial part 2: the graphics

If we come back to the stoneage, can malaria occur over Europe?

Malaria simulations have been achieved using the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) over Europe for the period 1990 to 2006. Different sources of climate data have been used to drive LMM: NCEP and ERAINTERIM reanalysis, and the ECA (Eobs) dataset at 25km resolution (only the mediteranean basin).

The malaria incidence is weak during winter (DJF) and spring (MAM), due to unsuitable cold temperatures conditions.
During summer (JJA) and fall (SON), there is a climate risk of malaria occurence over Italy, soutwestern France (the Bordeaux region) and the Balkans (Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Ukraine). There is also a risk over the western tip of Portugal. Most of these features are relatively consistent accross the different climate datasets used to drive LMM.

Note that these features are relatively consistent with the ones raised in the Reiter's paper

Mean winter (DJF) simulated Malaria Incidence over Europe (1990-2006). Outputs from the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). Different sources of climate data are used to drive LMM: NCEP and ERAINTERIM reanalysis, and the ECA (Eobs) dataset at 25km resolution.

Mean spring (MAM) simulated Malaria Incidence over Europe (1990-2006). Outputs from the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). Different sources of climate data are used to drive LMM: NCEP and ERAINTERIM reanalysis, and the ECA (Eobs) dataset at 25km resolution.

Mean summer (JJA) simulated Malaria Incidence over Europe (1990-2006). Outputs from the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). Different sources of climate data are used to drive LMM: NCEP and ERAINTERIM reanalysis, and the ECA (Eobs) dataset at 25km resolution.

Mean fall (SON) simulated Malaria Incidence over Europe (1990-2006). Outputs from the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). Different sources of climate data are used to drive LMM: NCEP and ERAINTERIM reanalysis, and the ECA (Eobs) dataset at 25km resolution.

Mean annual (ANN) simulated Malaria prevalence over Europe (1990-2006). Outputs from the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). Different sources of climate data are used to drive LMM: NCEP and ERAINTERIM reanalysis, and the ECA (Eobs) dataset at 25km resolution.

Publication update

Two papers have been published:

Caminade C. and L. Terray (2009) 20^th century Sahel rainfall variability as simulated by the ARPEGE AGCM and future changes. Clim. Dyn., published online, DOI:10.1007/s00382-009-0545-4

Assan J., Caminade C. And F. Obeng (2009) Environmental variability and vulnerable livelihoods: Minimising Risks and Optimising opportunities for poverty alleviation. Jour. Int. Dev. 21(3), 403-418. DOI:10.1002/jid.1563

Regional Climate Model validation for impact modellers

A short validation of the RCM European runs performed within the ENSEMBLES RT3 framework is now available. This is carried out for key impact variables (Rainfall, 2m Temperature, Minimum and Maximum temperatures) for both the control and SRESA1B scenario experiments in order to highlight the model performance in reproducing the observed climate.

http://sites.google.com/site/rt3validation/Home

Climate informations relevant to Humanitarian Future Programme

Following the exchange between UNILIV /CAFOLD and HFP
a website in which we list a collection of sites that may be of use for humanitarian agencies and future adaptation plan has been created. This site is being developed as part of the HFP following interaction with agencies including CAFOD. This includes link to seasonal forecasts, climate scenario information and datasets, training, tools and tutorials.
This is not a definitive list but a selection and a point to start the discussion that will be updated in real time.

http://sites.google.com/site/hfpclimateinfo/

Cafod / King's college / UNILIV meeting 06-07/04/09

Here are the links and documents we discussed about during the meeting:

1) The presentation associated with the LUCIA team in Liverpool: here

2) Usefull links concerning various documents and operational forecasts:

UNDP climate change coutry profiles
These country-level climate data summaries were prepared with funding from the UNDP National Communication Suport Programme (NSCP) and the UK government Department for International Development (DfiD) in order to address the climate change information gap for developing countries by making use of existing climate data to generate a series of country-level studies of climate observations and the multi-model projections made available through the WCRP CMIP3

Various websites for which you can find weather / seasonal forecasts over Africa and over part in the world

The ACMAD website (mainly in french) and the associated monthly bulletin here

GFS forecast system outputs (from the COLA website): here

NOAA CPC African Desk: here

IRI seasonal forecasts and various products over Africa: here
The map room root: here
Browse the IRI website there are usefull informations available here

3) Usefull journal / publications links

CLIVAR exchanges.

AMS Weather, Climate and society


4) The different tools we discussed about (usefull for post-grad students) and other usefull links:

The climate explorer developed at KNMI is a powerfull tool to perform climate related studies and complex statistical analysis on the data. This tool only requests an internet connection and a browser. A short tutorial for climate health related studies is available here

The NCAR portal, allowing to analyze datas, perform statistic analyses and lots of things.....
really easy to use (just push buttons....)
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/PublicData/getpage.pl

Share your pc for climate simulations.....
http://www.climateprediction.net/

edGCM : simple Global Climate model (an older version of the NASA model) for education and training, it allows to setup climate simulation (scenario, paleoclimate sim....), to visualize the outputs (Eva interface) and to write papers
Really usefull for students and can be installed under windows.....
http://edgcm.columbia.edu/

IDV: 3D real time visualization soft. Really usefull to impress people during the conferences....
Can acces real time forcecast of the GISS model via the web (a catalog can be accessed to by URL)
Read both grib and netcdf files......
http://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/idv/