Asian tiger mosquito climatic suitability

Aedes Albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito) climate suitability: 1950-2050

An overwintering zone is first carried out (defined for mean January temperatures above 0C and annual rainfall above 500mm). Then critical annual temperature thresholds (9-10-11-12C) are depicted based on Kobayashi et al, 2002. The 11C isotherm (light red on the figure) has been shown to fit the observed distribution of the mosquito for Japan and the USA. The present period (1950-2009) is based on gridded observation data, while the future projections (2010-2050) are based on the regional climate model ensemble mean carried out within the ENSEMBLES project (SRESA1B) scenario. Trends are depicted as a 5 year running average is applied to the data. The RCMs outputs are mean bias corrected with respect to the observations.

Update of the ENSEMBLES RCM validation website

An update of the ENSEMBLES RCM validation website has been carried out for Africa:

http://sites.google.com/site/rt3validation/africa/mean-bias2
http://sites.google.com/site/rt3validation/africa/stddev-biases2
http://sites.google.com/site/rt3validation/africa/seasonal-cycle
http://sites.google.com/site/rt3validation/africa/acc2
http://sites.google.com/site/rt3validation/africa/future-changes-2

Publication update

2 non peer review publications, with however lots of readers:

H. Guis, C. Caminade, G. Gerbier, R. Lancelot, A. Tran (2010) Evaluation de l’impact du changement climatique en santé animale : état des lieux et recommandations. CIHEAM (Centre International des Haute Etudes Agronomiques Mediterraneennes) letters, Hiver 2010, 12:7-9. Download the pdf - english - french

E. Vismans, A. Morse, C. Caminade, M. Edward (2010) Maximising the use of climate science for all end users. CLIVAR exchanges Newsletters, Vol 15, No 1, 6-10. Download the pdf.

Tutorials

I've written few tutorials and examples for linux basic commands, netcdf files manipulation, nco and the ferret visualization software.
This can be useful for PhD / master students starting basic analysis. The files are in pdf format.

Linux tutorial
Netcdf and NCO tutorial
Ferret tutorial
NCL tutorial part1: programmig
NCL tutorial part 2: the graphics

If we come back to the stoneage, can malaria occur over Europe?

Malaria simulations have been achieved using the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) over Europe for the period 1990 to 2006. Different sources of climate data have been used to drive LMM: NCEP and ERAINTERIM reanalysis, and the ECA (Eobs) dataset at 25km resolution (only the mediteranean basin).

The malaria incidence is weak during winter (DJF) and spring (MAM), due to unsuitable cold temperatures conditions.
During summer (JJA) and fall (SON), there is a climate risk of malaria occurence over Italy, soutwestern France (the Bordeaux region) and the Balkans (Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Ukraine). There is also a risk over the western tip of Portugal. Most of these features are relatively consistent accross the different climate datasets used to drive LMM.

Note that these features are relatively consistent with the ones raised in the Reiter's paper

Mean winter (DJF) simulated Malaria Incidence over Europe (1990-2006). Outputs from the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). Different sources of climate data are used to drive LMM: NCEP and ERAINTERIM reanalysis, and the ECA (Eobs) dataset at 25km resolution.

Mean spring (MAM) simulated Malaria Incidence over Europe (1990-2006). Outputs from the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). Different sources of climate data are used to drive LMM: NCEP and ERAINTERIM reanalysis, and the ECA (Eobs) dataset at 25km resolution.

Mean summer (JJA) simulated Malaria Incidence over Europe (1990-2006). Outputs from the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). Different sources of climate data are used to drive LMM: NCEP and ERAINTERIM reanalysis, and the ECA (Eobs) dataset at 25km resolution.

Mean fall (SON) simulated Malaria Incidence over Europe (1990-2006). Outputs from the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). Different sources of climate data are used to drive LMM: NCEP and ERAINTERIM reanalysis, and the ECA (Eobs) dataset at 25km resolution.

Mean annual (ANN) simulated Malaria prevalence over Europe (1990-2006). Outputs from the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). Different sources of climate data are used to drive LMM: NCEP and ERAINTERIM reanalysis, and the ECA (Eobs) dataset at 25km resolution.

Publication update

Two papers have been published:

Caminade C. and L. Terray (2009) 20^th century Sahel rainfall variability as simulated by the ARPEGE AGCM and future changes. Clim. Dyn., published online, DOI:10.1007/s00382-009-0545-4

Assan J., Caminade C. And F. Obeng (2009) Environmental variability and vulnerable livelihoods: Minimising Risks and Optimising opportunities for poverty alleviation. Jour. Int. Dev. 21(3), 403-418. DOI:10.1002/jid.1563

Regional Climate Model validation for impact modellers

A short validation of the RCM European runs performed within the ENSEMBLES RT3 framework is now available. This is carried out for key impact variables (Rainfall, 2m Temperature, Minimum and Maximum temperatures) for both the control and SRESA1B scenario experiments in order to highlight the model performance in reproducing the observed climate.

http://sites.google.com/site/rt3validation/Home

Climate informations relevant to Humanitarian Future Programme

Following the exchange between UNILIV /CAFOLD and HFP
a website in which we list a collection of sites that may be of use for humanitarian agencies and future adaptation plan has been created. This site is being developed as part of the HFP following interaction with agencies including CAFOD. This includes link to seasonal forecasts, climate scenario information and datasets, training, tools and tutorials.
This is not a definitive list but a selection and a point to start the discussion that will be updated in real time.

http://sites.google.com/site/hfpclimateinfo/

Cafod / King's college / UNILIV meeting 06-07/04/09

Here are the links and documents we discussed about during the meeting:

1) The presentation associated with the LUCIA team in Liverpool: here

2) Usefull links concerning various documents and operational forecasts:

UNDP climate change coutry profiles
These country-level climate data summaries were prepared with funding from the UNDP National Communication Suport Programme (NSCP) and the UK government Department for International Development (DfiD) in order to address the climate change information gap for developing countries by making use of existing climate data to generate a series of country-level studies of climate observations and the multi-model projections made available through the WCRP CMIP3

Various websites for which you can find weather / seasonal forecasts over Africa and over part in the world

The ACMAD website (mainly in french) and the associated monthly bulletin here

GFS forecast system outputs (from the COLA website): here

NOAA CPC African Desk: here

IRI seasonal forecasts and various products over Africa: here
The map room root: here
Browse the IRI website there are usefull informations available here

3) Usefull journal / publications links

CLIVAR exchanges.

AMS Weather, Climate and society


4) The different tools we discussed about (usefull for post-grad students) and other usefull links:

The climate explorer developed at KNMI is a powerfull tool to perform climate related studies and complex statistical analysis on the data. This tool only requests an internet connection and a browser. A short tutorial for climate health related studies is available here

The NCAR portal, allowing to analyze datas, perform statistic analyses and lots of things.....
really easy to use (just push buttons....)
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/PublicData/getpage.pl

Share your pc for climate simulations.....
http://www.climateprediction.net/

edGCM : simple Global Climate model (an older version of the NASA model) for education and training, it allows to setup climate simulation (scenario, paleoclimate sim....), to visualize the outputs (Eva interface) and to write papers
Really usefull for students and can be installed under windows.....
http://edgcm.columbia.edu/

IDV: 3D real time visualization soft. Really usefull to impress people during the conferences....
Can acces real time forcecast of the GISS model via the web (a catalog can be accessed to by URL)
Read both grib and netcdf files......
http://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/idv/

AMMA WP3.4 website

The new version of the AMMA WP3.4 website has been released: here
Informations about the ongoing research, data portals, disease modelling and analysis tutorial
are now available.
This website is the deliverable 3.4c for the AMMA project.

Update of the ENSEMBLES RT6 webpage

An update of the RT6 ENSEMBLES webpage has been done: here
The template has changed
The "news" section has been updated
A section Document and Download has been added.
In this section the RT6 partners can find informations on how to access the datas
(few shell scripts are uploaded to retrieve the files). Few documents and usefull links concerning
various climate data portals and freeware to perform the analysis are available as well.

Validation of ENSEMBLES/DEMETER seasonal forecasts over the Sahel: Intraseasonal features

EMS conference in Amsterdam (29/09 - 03/10/2008)

The Sahel is the region of the globe which has experienced the most severe drying, from 1970 to 2000, with dramatic social and economic impacts. As a consequence, forecasting rainfall over West Africa at seasonal time scales became essential regarding to impacts in terms of food, health and security managements since the 1970’s.
One of the aims of the recent initiated AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis) project is to improve the prediction of the West African Monsoon (WAM) system and its impacts on West African nations. In parallel, within the European DEMETER and ENSEMBLES projects framework, a well-validated European coupled multi-model ensemble forecast system for reliable seasonal to interannual prediction has been developed. Coordinating studies on seasonal prediction between ENSEMBLES and AMMA participants became obvious from the first AMMA/ENSEMBLES meeting that took place in Bamako, Mali.
Thus, in this paper we propose to both validate ENSEMBLES and DEMETER seasonal forecast simulations over the Sahel, with respect to different reference observation data sets during the monsoon period (from July to September) for a common period (1991-2001). An overview of the performance of the different models participating in the projects in capturing the mean features of the WAM, as well as of the multi-model hindcasts is achieved using typical indices, maps, determinist and probabilistic scores commonly used in seasonal forecast studies. Preliminary results highlight common rainfall bias as simulated by coarse resolution GCM, namely overestimation of precipitation over the high mountains (Ethiopia plateau) and underestimation over the low ones (Cameroon mounts, Senegal coast). Other common bias (similar to the ones highlighted in the CMIP3 IPCC coupled simulations) can be shown for relevant SST areas (which are strongly related to rainfall interannual variability over the Sahel), namely a warm bias over the Gulf of Guinea and the ENSO (eastern Pacific) region. Based on a perfect model approach, rainfall potential predictability (PP) is estimated. Strong rainfall PP values can be shown over the Guinea Coast whereas the predictability is relatively weak over the Sahel. Moreover, the model rainfall forecasts seem to be more skilful over the Guinea Coast and the tropical Atlantic Ocean than the Sahel.
The Impact Studies community (agriculture, health....) have expressed a significant need in terms of forecasting intra-seasonal features of the WAM (onset date of the monsoon, occurrence of dry spells during the rainy season...). The performance of DEMETER/ENSEMBLES hindcasts in reproducing these features will be investigated with respect to both ERA40 and NCEP reanalysis.
Similarities and divergence points between DEMETER and ENSEMBLES hindcasts system performance over sub-Saharan Africa will then be discussed as a conclusion. A discussion will also be done about the selected time period. Namely, is 10 year model climate meaningful to build significant statistical results (mean, variance, etc) over the Sahel? Development strategies to improve the model scores will be suggested as perspectives.

Associated presentation:
EMS2008_caminade.v2.pdf

Mapping the effects of climate change on bluetongue transmission in Europe

Conference in Bangkok (Thailand) and Paris

Helene Guis123, Cyril Caminade4, Andy Morse4, François Roger2, Matthew Baylis1

1 Lucinda (Liverpool University Climate and Infectious Diseases of Animals Group), Liverpool University, UK
2 AGIRs (Animal and Integrated Risk Management Unit), Cirad, France
3 TETIS (Territories, Environment, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Unit), Cirad, Cemagref, Engref, France
4 Department of Geography, Liverpool University, UK

Bluetongue (BT) is an arboviral disease of ruminants which emerged in Europe in 1998 and has, since then, caused an unprecedented series of epizootics of major economic consequence. Two distinct epidemiological events underlie this emergence: the northward expansion of the Afro-asian midge Culicoides imicola, probably under the influence of climate change; and the involvement of indigenous European Culicoides of the Obsoletus and Pulicaris groups.
In order to assess the effects of climate change in the distribution of BT in Europe, the basic reproduction number R0 of BT was modelled by a unique integration of epidemiological models with state-of-the-art climate models. This approach allows us to map R0 throughout Europe on an annual basis under past, present and future conditions simulated using several different climate models, with outputs in terms of model means and uncertainties
R0 was computed for a population of two hosts as sheep and cattle have different epidemiological roles in the transmission of BT (the latter being less affected by the disease but presenting a long viraemia) and for both the exotic (C. imicola) and indigenous vectors.
Climatic data for recent past (1961-2000) and future (1950-2050) periods was provided by the ENSEMBLES European project at a spatial scale of 25*25 km. For the recent past, improved regional climate simulations were produced by running a subset of four regional climatic models with the most realistic boundary conditions (ERA40 reanalysis) and external forcing. For the future conditions, simulations were carried out by running three regional climate models forced at their boundaries by a general circulation models forced by the IPCC’s (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A1B (integrated world with a balanced emphasis on all energy sources).
This modelling approach was carried out in three steps to assess the effects of climate change on each of the components of the BT epidemiological cycle: i) viral replication only, ii) viral transmission taking into account host distribution and iii) the combination of the viral, host and vector components. Results show the coherence between past anomalies in R0 and past incursions of Culicoides-borne diseases in Europe and highlight the fact that the vector component is both the most critical and yet the least well-defined one.

Here is the associated presentation:
HG_ClimateBT_BangkokSept2008v3.pdf

20th century Sahel rainfall variability as simulated by the ARPEGE AGCM and future changes (2)

Here is the submitted draft version to climate dynamics concerning the links between SST/Tropospheric temperatures and the Sahelian drought for the ARPEGE model, and an highlight concerning the IPCC simulations

update (09/07/08)

clim_dyn_paper_caminade_terray_2008.pdf

Blue tongue disease and climate change over Europe

The blue tongue disease (catarrhal fever) is a non contagious, insect-borne viral disease of ruminants, affecting mainly sheep and less frequently the cattle. It is caused by the the bluetongue virus, transmitted by different culicoides (fly). A significant increase of the disease has been seen since the last decade over Northern Europe. This work is a first attempt to relate climate change (as the virus is temperature driven) and the possible change in the affected areas over Europe for the next upcoming decades, based on the ENSEMBLES RCM simulations.
Here is a short report concerning preliminary results:
Blue_tongue_results.pdf

Validation Atlas for ENSEMBLES RCMs runs over Europe

This is a link to a short document including few validation maps (climatology, variance) for 4 models of the ENSEMBLES RCM database. The recent climate linear trends are also highlighted, and few climate projections are shown (2030-2050 minus 1961-2000).
This is done for the summer (JJA) and winter (DJF) seasons and for 4 impact variables:

Rainfall
2meter temperature
Minimum and maximum temperatures.

Other analyses would be updated later (time series....)

The link: Valid_RCM.doc

Presentation Niamey, AMMA-ENSEMBLES meeting

Submitted Abstract:

As a consequence of the severe drought that occurs from 1970 to 2000, forecasting rainfall over the Sahel at seasonal time scales became a priority regarding to impacts in terms of food, health and security managements since the 1970’s. Improving the prediction of the West African Monsoon (WAM) system and its impacts on health, water resources and food security is one of the main aims of the AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis) project. In parallel, within the European DEMETER and ENSEMBLES projects framework, a well-validated European coupled multi-model ensemble forecast system for reliable seasonal to interannual prediction has been developed, and maintained at ECMWF. Using the model forecasts performed in ENSEMBLES and DEMETER projects in order to highlight their performance and their reliability over West Africa appeared to be essential, from the first cross AMMA/ENSEMBLES meeting that took place in Bamako, Mali.

Within this framework, we propose to highlight the performance of the different models participating in the ENSEMBLES and DEMETER projects in capturing the mean features of the WAM, as well as of the multi-model hindcasts, during the rainy season (from July to September) over the [1991-2001] common period. Different reference observation data sets are used (CRU, GPCP, NCEP....) to validate the model forecasts. This task is achieved using common validation tools, namely typical indices and maps to determine the model biases (mean/variability) and determinist/probabilistic scores (Correlation/Brier/ROC) to highlight the forecasts performance. A perfect model approach is also used to determine the potential predictability (PP) of the main impact variables (this analysis provides an idea about the upper limit of forecasting probabilities).

Preliminary results highlight common precipitation biases as simulated by coarse resolution GCM used in climate studies, namely overestimation of rainfall over the high mountains (Ethiopia plateau) and underestimation over the low ones (Cameroon mounts, Senegal coast). These biases are relatively similar for both the mean and the variance. Other common (well-known) biases are depicted for relevant SST areas, namely a warm bias over the Gulf of Guinea and the Eastern Pacific region (ENSO). The rainfall potential predictability is relatively high over the Guinea Coast whereas it is relatively weak over the Sahel. Moreover, the model rainfall forecasts seem to be more skilful over the Guinea Coast and the tropical Atlantic Ocean than the Sahel.

Similarities and differences between DEMETER and ENSEMBLES hindcasts systems over sub-Saharan Africa will then be given in the conclusion. A discussion will also be done about the limiting selected common period (1991-2001). Namely, is 10 year model climate enough to have significant statistical results (mean, variance, etc) over the Sahel? Strategies and methods to improve the model forecast performance will then be highlighted as perspectives.

Presentation link:
caminade_morse_Niamey.ppt

Guideline (few comments slide by slide):
guideline_Niamey.ppt

Validation ENSEMBLES/DEMETER v1.2

An updated version of the validation Atlas of DEMETER/ENSEMBLES seasonal forecast over Africa. ROCSS and Brier Scores have been added for rainfall and 2m temperature.
Few results are discussed:

Atlas_ENSEMBLES_DEMETER_Africa.v1.2.pdf

The figures have also been updated on the flickr site:
http://flickr.com/photos/25358757@N06/sets/72157605087475214/

20th century Sahel rainfall variability as simulated by the ARPEGE AGCM and future changes

Here is a first paper draft concerning the links between SST/Tropospheric temperatures and the Sahelian drought for the ARPEGE-climat model, and an highlight concerning the IPCC simulations:

clim_dyn_paper_caminade_terray_2008.pdf

DEMETER/ENSEMBLES Africa/Florida presentation

Few slides (ppt file) and results concerning DEMETER/ENSEMBLES seasonal forecast over Africa can be retrieved to this link:

Conference_florida_Andy.ppt

An update of the Africa report would be done soon......