Asian tiger mosquito climatic suitability

Aedes Albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito) climate suitability: 1950-2050

An overwintering zone is first carried out (defined for mean January temperatures above 0C and annual rainfall above 500mm). Then critical annual temperature thresholds (9-10-11-12C) are depicted based on Kobayashi et al, 2002. The 11C isotherm (light red on the figure) has been shown to fit the observed distribution of the mosquito for Japan and the USA. The present period (1950-2009) is based on gridded observation data, while the future projections (2010-2050) are based on the regional climate model ensemble mean carried out within the ENSEMBLES project (SRESA1B) scenario. Trends are depicted as a 5 year running average is applied to the data. The RCMs outputs are mean bias corrected with respect to the observations.

Update of the ENSEMBLES RCM validation website

An update of the ENSEMBLES RCM validation website has been carried out for Africa:

http://sites.google.com/site/rt3validation/africa/mean-bias2
http://sites.google.com/site/rt3validation/africa/stddev-biases2
http://sites.google.com/site/rt3validation/africa/seasonal-cycle
http://sites.google.com/site/rt3validation/africa/acc2
http://sites.google.com/site/rt3validation/africa/future-changes-2

Publication update

2 non peer review publications, with however lots of readers:

H. Guis, C. Caminade, G. Gerbier, R. Lancelot, A. Tran (2010) Evaluation de l’impact du changement climatique en santé animale : état des lieux et recommandations. CIHEAM (Centre International des Haute Etudes Agronomiques Mediterraneennes) letters, Hiver 2010, 12:7-9. Download the pdf - english - french

E. Vismans, A. Morse, C. Caminade, M. Edward (2010) Maximising the use of climate science for all end users. CLIVAR exchanges Newsletters, Vol 15, No 1, 6-10. Download the pdf.

Tutorials

I've written few tutorials and examples for linux basic commands, netcdf files manipulation, nco and the ferret visualization software.
This can be useful for PhD / master students starting basic analysis. The files are in pdf format.

Linux tutorial
Netcdf and NCO tutorial
Ferret tutorial
NCL tutorial part1: programmig
NCL tutorial part 2: the graphics

If we come back to the stoneage, can malaria occur over Europe?

Malaria simulations have been achieved using the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) over Europe for the period 1990 to 2006. Different sources of climate data have been used to drive LMM: NCEP and ERAINTERIM reanalysis, and the ECA (Eobs) dataset at 25km resolution (only the mediteranean basin).

The malaria incidence is weak during winter (DJF) and spring (MAM), due to unsuitable cold temperatures conditions.
During summer (JJA) and fall (SON), there is a climate risk of malaria occurence over Italy, soutwestern France (the Bordeaux region) and the Balkans (Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Ukraine). There is also a risk over the western tip of Portugal. Most of these features are relatively consistent accross the different climate datasets used to drive LMM.

Note that these features are relatively consistent with the ones raised in the Reiter's paper

Mean winter (DJF) simulated Malaria Incidence over Europe (1990-2006). Outputs from the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). Different sources of climate data are used to drive LMM: NCEP and ERAINTERIM reanalysis, and the ECA (Eobs) dataset at 25km resolution.

Mean spring (MAM) simulated Malaria Incidence over Europe (1990-2006). Outputs from the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). Different sources of climate data are used to drive LMM: NCEP and ERAINTERIM reanalysis, and the ECA (Eobs) dataset at 25km resolution.

Mean summer (JJA) simulated Malaria Incidence over Europe (1990-2006). Outputs from the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). Different sources of climate data are used to drive LMM: NCEP and ERAINTERIM reanalysis, and the ECA (Eobs) dataset at 25km resolution.

Mean fall (SON) simulated Malaria Incidence over Europe (1990-2006). Outputs from the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). Different sources of climate data are used to drive LMM: NCEP and ERAINTERIM reanalysis, and the ECA (Eobs) dataset at 25km resolution.

Mean annual (ANN) simulated Malaria prevalence over Europe (1990-2006). Outputs from the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). Different sources of climate data are used to drive LMM: NCEP and ERAINTERIM reanalysis, and the ECA (Eobs) dataset at 25km resolution.

Publication update

Two papers have been published:

Caminade C. and L. Terray (2009) 20^th century Sahel rainfall variability as simulated by the ARPEGE AGCM and future changes. Clim. Dyn., published online, DOI:10.1007/s00382-009-0545-4

Assan J., Caminade C. And F. Obeng (2009) Environmental variability and vulnerable livelihoods: Minimising Risks and Optimising opportunities for poverty alleviation. Jour. Int. Dev. 21(3), 403-418. DOI:10.1002/jid.1563

Regional Climate Model validation for impact modellers

A short validation of the RCM European runs performed within the ENSEMBLES RT3 framework is now available. This is carried out for key impact variables (Rainfall, 2m Temperature, Minimum and Maximum temperatures) for both the control and SRESA1B scenario experiments in order to highlight the model performance in reproducing the observed climate.

http://sites.google.com/site/rt3validation/Home